Why holiday prices move
Providers price each trip from what is left to sell and how many people want it. Several things feed into that:
Because these change, two people looking at the same hotel on different days can see different prices.
Why "wait for it to drop" is a gamble
A price that has just fallen can rise again, and the cheapest room type or flight can sell out before you decide. Waiting can save money, but it can also cost you the holiday you wanted or a higher price. Nobody can promise which way it will go for your trip.
What our own tracker data shows
We can say something about how often prices move, because we record a lot of them. Between 16 September and 15 October 2026 we stored 29,889 price readings from trackers for Jet2holidays (21,549), TUI (8,029), First Choice (266) and Hoseasons (45). Every reading after the first one for each tracker is compared with the reading before it.
Treat these as a snapshot, not a forecast. They come from a small number of trackers, over about a month, for the specific holidays people chose, and the mix will change as more people use the site. What they do show is that prices move often enough to be worth watching, and that a price which has just risen can fall back.
A calmer way to decide
That way you are not trying to guess the bottom of the market, which nobody can see. You are waiting for a price you already know is good for you. Start a tracker or read how to track a holiday price.
Comparing two options
If you are torn between two hotels, two weeks or two airports, track both. Seeing both prices move over a few days makes it much easier to tell which is the better value, and it stops you booking one just before the other drops.
Common questions
Will a price alert guarantee I get the lowest price?
No. It tells you when the price meets the rule you set, so you can decide. Prices can change again and holidays can sell out, so always check the provider's site before booking.
Should I book as soon as the price drops?
Only if the price suits you. That is why it helps to decide your target in advance. If the price meets it and the holiday is right, there is little reason to gamble on a further drop.
Which holiday sites can I track?
TUI, First Choice, Jet2holidays, Haven, Hoseasons, Norfolk Hideaways, cottages.com and Novasol. Start with how to track a holiday price.
Set up a tracker or read our FAQs.